Southern pine lumber import tariffs and supply chain risk analysis in 2024: price volatility and stable supply outlook

Southern pine lumber exports fell in December in 2024, although the annual export volume remained high. The import, export and price fluctuations of southern pine lumber have had an important impact on the Chinese market. Importers need to pay attention to supply chain risks to ensure a stable supply of lumber.

Analysis of import tariffs and supply chain risks for southern pine lumber in 2024

release date:February 13, 2025

Based on information from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Trade System, combined with additional analysis from the Southern Forest Products Association (SFPA), total exports of southern pine lumber (both treated and untreated) in 2024 are expected to total 565.7 million board feet (MMBF), an increase of 11% from 2023.

On a monthly basis, southern pine lumber exports in December 2024 increased by 21.9% year-on-year, but decreased by 2.2% compared to November. The total export volume in December was 38.9 MMBF, the second lowest month in 2024, second only to 37.9 MMBF in January.

At the same time, softwood lumber imports fell by 11.5% year-on-year and 11% from November. Overall, softwood lumber imports in 2024 fell by 2% from 2023.

In dollar value terms, southern pine lumber exports increase by 6% to $211.5 million by the end of 2024 compared to 2023. Mexico leads with $57.9 million, followed by the Dominican Republic with $48.2 million and India with $16.9 million.

Treated lumber exports remained stable at year end, reaching $133.1 million, with the main market being the Leeward-Wendelwaard Islands at $23.7 million, followed by Jamaica at $19.9 million and the Netherlands Antilles at $10.3 million.

LumberFlow Expert Interpretation

The decline in southern pine lumber exports may have a profound impact on the Chinese market. Although the overall export volume is still higher than the previous year, the downward trend in December may indicate supply chain risks in the coming months, especially in the context of changing tariffs and trade policies. It will be crucial for Chinese wood importers to understand the reasons for price fluctuations and how to purchase with a stable supply. Since the main market for southern pine is concentrated in the Americas, any geopolitical or economic fluctuations may directly affect the supply of wood in the Chinese market. Therefore, importers are advised to pay close attention to market dynamics so that they can respond in a timely manner and ensure the flexibility and stability of procurement.

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