The U.S. Department of Commerce issued the sixth preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian softwood products, and the wood import supply chain faces new challenges

U.S. Department of Commerce issues sixth preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian cork products

March 3, 2025, United StatesMinistry of CommerceThe Department of Commerce (DOC) has issued a preliminary antidumping determination in the sixth administrative review (AR6) against certain Canadian softwood lumber products. This preliminary determination will not have a direct impact on the current antidumping duty rates or cash deposit rates.

The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated the AR6 review in March 2024, and the review period is from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023. The following are the main contents of the preliminary ruling:

It is important to note that these determinations are preliminary. The current margin rates will not change until the U.S. Department of Commerce issues a final determination and publishes it in the Federal Register. The final determination is expected to be published in late August or early September 2025. Although these rates are preliminary, based on past practice, the final rates are likely to be close to the preliminary rates.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has not yet issued a preliminary determination on countervailing duties. We will update the countervailing duties and comprehensive rates as relevant data becomes available.

LumberFlow Expert Interpretation

Supply Chain Impact:Although the ruling is preliminary, it may trigger production adjustments by Canadian lumber exporters, especially Canadian sawmills that rely on the U.S. market. In the short term, supply chains may fluctuate, especially on transportation routes from western Canada (such as British Columbia) to the U.S. West Coast.

Demand replacement mode:If the supply of Canadian lumber is limited, Chinese importers may turn to lumber supplies from the Russian Far East or Nordic countries (such as Sweden). Russian lumber may become the preferred alternative due to its price advantage and geographical location (e.g., the shipping time from Vladivostok to Shanghai is only 7-10 days).

Price transmission mechanism:The lumber futures price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will directly affect the FOB price in Vancouver, which in turn will be transmitted to the CIF price in China. Chinese importers are advised to pay close attention to the CME futures curve to formulate a reasonable inventory strategy.

Secondary Effects:The EU's RED policy (Renewable Energy Directive) is driving up demand for North American biomass energy, which may further intensify competition in the North American wood market and indirectly affect the procurement costs of Chinese importers.

Logistics Information:It usually takes 18-22 days for bulk carriers to travel from Vancouver to Shanghai, and container and Handysize ship rates at BC ports have recently increased. In contrast, the cost and time of transporting timber from the Russian Far East are more competitive.

Strategic recommendations:Chinese importers are advised to adjust their inventory strategies according to the CME futures curve and give priority to FOB or CIF contracts to reduce risks. At the same time, they need to be alert to the trade barriers that may be brought about by the US Lacey Act and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to be implemented in 2026.