China imposes additional tariffs on US timber imports: supply chain adjustments and price fluctuations warning

China announced that it would impose additional tariffs of 34% on imported timber from the United States starting April 10, 2025, directly affecting the supply chain of species such as SPF and Douglas fir. Experts recommend that companies urgently check goods in transit on the west coast of North America and evaluate the cost differences of alternative options in Canada/Russia.

Interpretation of the State Council Tariff Commission's announcement on additional tariffs on US imports

April 4, 2025 – In response to the unilateral trade measures of the United States, China announced that starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, it will impose 34% tariffs on all imported goods originating from the United States. This policy directly affectsU.S. timber export supply chain to China, involving major building materials such as Douglas fir and SPF.

LumberFlow Expert Interpretation

1. Cost impact estimation: US timber FOB price willDirectly push up 41-45%(Including 6-7% exchange rate fluctuation buffer), based on the 2024 SPF#2&btr grade benchmark price of $380/thousand board feet, the landed cost will exceed the historical high of CNY2,850/m³.
2. Window period strategy:April 10th - May 13thGoods in transit are exempt from the policy and companies are advised to immediately check the shipping schedule of 200,000 board feet of timber departing from the west coast of North America (Vancouver/Seattle).
3. Comparison of alternatives: SPF in BC, Canada is now more expensive than US materials12-15%, the price difference of Russian larch CIF Qingdao widened to $85/thousand board feet.

Logistics Impact Analysis

1. Route adjustment: Estimated timber cargo volume on the US West Coast-China routeMonthly reduction of 180,000-220,000 cubic metersCMA CGM has notified the suspension of bookings for timber-dedicated space on some TPX routes.
2. Container turnover: The empty return rate of 40HQ containers on the West Coast of North America will rise to67%(Currently 52%), it is recommended to prioritize locking in the COA contract before May.
3. Intermodal transport alternative: The cost of timber transportation via the Arctic route from Kodiak Port in Alaska via the Bering Strait is lower than that of traditional routes.Reduce $23/m3, but the average annual window period is only 117 days.

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