Canada's March industrial products and raw materials price index released: softwood lumber prices soared 6.4% in a single month, and China's import cost pressure increased sharply

Canadian lumber prices rebounded strongly in March, with softwood prices soaring 6.4% in a single month, a five-month high. Chinese importers are facing price transmission pressure in the second quarter and need to be wary of supply chain fluctuations caused by the US-Canada tariff dispute. Experts recommend giving priority to CNF terms and paying attention to alternative sources of goods from Russia.

Statistics Canada releases March industrial products and raw materials price index report

April 22, 2025Statistics Canada(StatCan) released the latest data on the Industrial Products Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) for March.

Key data highlights:

The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month, achieving six consecutive months of growth.
The prices of wood and wood products ended two consecutive declines in March.A surge of 3.1% in a single month
The price of softwood lumberSoaring 6.4%, the largest increase since November 2024
The annual IPPI increased by 4.7%, also maintaining a six-day consecutive increase

LumberFlow Expert Interpretation

Direct impact on Chinese importers:

1. Price Transmission Mechanism：The monthly increase of 6.4% in Canadian softwood lumber is expected to be fully transmitted to the CIF price in China through FOB price within 60-90 days. According to historical data, every 1% fluctuation in Canadian prices will lead to a fluctuation of 0.7-0.9% in wholesale prices in East China.

2. Tariff risk premium：The "tariff threat uncertainty" mentioned in the article specifically refers to the chain reaction that may be triggered by the US-Canada softwood trade dispute. Chinese importers should be vigilant: if Canadian lumber is blocked from re-exporting to the United States, more resources may flow into the Asian market, depressing prices in the short term but increasing supply chain volatility in the long term.

3. Seasonal demand mismatch：Canada's spring demand growth overlaps with China's second-quarter infrastructure peak season. It is expected that Canada's SPF (spruce-pine-fir) export price to China in Q2 2025 will maintain a year-on-year increase of 4-5%.

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