BC Mill Expansion: Long-Term SPF Supply Security

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The approval on October 15, 2025, for Van Urban Timber (VUT) to expand its Squamish, BC, operations has no immediate effect on pricing or supply availability for dimensional lumber buyers. This is a crucial permitting milestone, not a production start date. VUT is replacing its existing sawmill with a significantly larger structure, requiring a height variance from 4.58 meters (15 feet) to 7.62 meters (25 feet) to house modern, high-throughput machinery. Buyers should expect the construction phase to last well into 2026, meaning any resulting capacity increase will likely not hit the market until late 2026 or early 2027. Therefore, short-term purchasing decisions (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) must remain focused on existing demand forecasts and tariff risks, not this capacity news.

This development is strategically important for the Western SPF and Hem-Fir markets. While overall BC lumber capacity has trended downward due to ongoing log supply constraints, VUT’s investment signals confidence in securing fiber in the Squamish region, which serves the crucial US West Coast and intermountain markets. Increased efficiency from larger, modern equipment typically translates to better recovery rates (more board feet per log) and potentially lower operating costs per MBF. The goal of using larger machinery suggests a commitment to optimizing log utilization, which is key in BC’s constrained fiber environment. If VUT can achieve a 10-15% increase in throughput over the next two years compared to the existing mill, it provides a much-needed counterbalance to the persistent mill closures and curtailments seen elsewhere in interior BC.

For procurement managers, this news reinforces the need to differentiate between short-term volatility (driven by housing starts, interest rates, and trade duties) and long-term structural supply trends. Currently, the most pressing supply risk remains the potential renewal or increase of the Softwood Lumber Duty (SLD). This capacity expansion, however, acts as a long-term risk mitigator. Buyers should use this information to adjust their strategic inventory models. If housing demand holds firm into 2027, this new capacity could help cap price spikes, ensuring a more stable supply of construction-grade material (2x4s and 2x6s) originating from Western Canada.

Actionable Outlook: Maintain current purchasing plans based on existing demand forecasts. Do not adjust immediate inventory levels based on this VUT announcement. Instead, earmark this mill for inclusion in your long-term supplier diversification strategy. The expansion suggests VUT is positioning itself as a reliable, modern supplier in Western Canada. Buyers should prepare to reassess long-term contract opportunities with VUT as the construction nears completion, likely by mid-2026, focusing on securing volume that benefits from the anticipated operational efficiencies.

Key Takeaways

• Immediate supply impact is zero; maintain current Q4 inventory levels and focus on managing Softwood Lumber Duties (SLD) volatility, which poses a greater immediate risk.

• The capacity increase targets 2027+ market entry. Use this long-term stability factor when projecting Western SPF/Hem-Fir prices beyond the next 18 months.

• Monitor VUT's construction progress; this modernized mill could offer increased volume and potentially better pricing stability for West Coast delivery in late 2026.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: ACTION: Track VUT’s construction timeline closely. Set a reminder for Q3 2026 to initiate long-term supply discussions, as increased capacity will likely stabilize Western SPF pricing moving into 2027.

How LumberFlow Helps

As VUT comes online, our multi-supplier RFQ system will help you seamlessly integrate the new capacity into your supply chain and compare quotes efficiently.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.