BC Mill Ramps Up: What Conifex's Two-Shift Move Means for SPF Prices

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

Conifex’s decision to transition its British Columbia sawmill to a two-shift operation, effective January 6, 2025, is a direct and immediate signal of increased supply entering the Western SPF market. For procurement managers, this news is positive, as it mitigates some of the supply tightness that characterized late 2024.

The mill's rationale is crucial: the move was justified by a “steadily improving backdrop for lumber prices,” highlighted by an 18% improvement in SPF benchmark cash prices in 2024 Q4 relative to Q3. This tells us two things: first, underlying demand is robust enough to support profitable expansion; and second, the mill is moving now to lower its own unit costs by spreading fixed overhead over a larger base. This cost-efficiency strategy suggests that while mills are bullish on the market, they are also preparing for a potentially more competitive pricing environment in Q1.

Pricing and Supply Impact: The most immediate impact will be felt in the SPF supply chain serving the Midwest and Northeast. While the 18% price surge of Q4 2024 demonstrated strong upward momentum, the additional volume produced by the second shift will likely act as a temporary cap on further rapid price escalation through late January and February. We anticipate a period of relative price stabilization for standard SPF dimensions (2x4, 2x6, 2x8).

Timing Considerations: This ramp-up provides a critical purchasing window. The physical lumber from the two-shift operation will begin hitting distribution channels in the next 4 to 8 weeks. Buyers should leverage this temporary increase in availability to secure inventory required for the early spring building season. Delaying purchases beyond February risks running into renewed supply constraints once seasonal demand (driven by housing starts and repair/remodel activity) accelerates in March and April, which could quickly absorb this added capacity. If the market absorbs this new supply quickly—meaning lead times do not extend past three weeks—it signals demand is far stronger than current production levels, setting the stage for renewed price increases in Q2.

Key Takeaways

• Utilize the temporary increase in SPF supply from BC (starting Jan 6) to secure standard dimension inventory needs for late Q1 2025.

• Expect SPF price volatility to decrease slightly in February as the increased mill output hits the market, offsetting the 18% price rise seen in Q4 2024.

• The move signals strong mill confidence; prepare inventory strategies for potential Q2 price appreciation if macro demand indicators continue to support growth.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Leverage the immediate supply boost by placing orders for Western SPF (2x4/2x6) now to secure Q1 inventory. This production ramp-up provides a short purchasing window before strong seasonal demand potentially pushes prices past the Q4 2024 peak of 18% growth.

How LumberFlow Helps

This shift highlights supply volatility. Use LumberFlow's multi-supplier RFQ system to instantly compare pricing and lead times across multiple Western Canadian SPF mills to find the best available inventory from the increased output. Our quote comparison dashboard allows you to quickly evaluate delivery schedules and lock in favorable terms during this temporary stabilization period.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.