Canadian Starts Jump 9.4% but US Jobs Cool: Buy Strategy

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The current macro data presents a split reality for dimensional lumber buyers. In Canada, the 9.4% increase in seasonally adjusted housing starts to 254,058 units provides a floor for SPF pricing, particularly as year-to-date starts remain 4% higher than 2024 levels. However, the strength is regional; while the Prairies and Quebec are active, British Columbia and Ontario are lagging. For US-based buyers, this means Western SPF supply might remain more available than the national Canadian headline suggests, as BC mills look for export homes to offset slower local demand.

Conversely, the US labor market report is a cautionary signal for the R&R (Repair and Remodel) and residential sectors. With the unemployment rate hitting 4.6% and significant downward revisions of 33,000 jobs for previous months, consumer confidence is likely to soften. This macro weakness usually translates to a slower start for the spring building season. Furthermore, Canadian existing-home sales fell 0.6% in November with prices down 2% year-over-year, indicating that the 'wealth effect' from home equity is not currently driving lumber consumption.

From a timing perspective, the market is entering a period of price stability rather than a breakout. Inventory levels for existing Canadian homes sit at 4.4 months, which is balanced but tight enough to prevent a total price collapse. For procurement managers, the move is to cover immediate needs (30-45 days) but resist the urge to lock in heavy Q1 volumes. The cooling US job market and the 1.7% decline in the six-month Canadian housing trend suggest that supply will be sufficient to meet demand without significant price spikes in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• Monitor regional SPF availability; BC and Ontario housing starts are lagging, potentially increasing export supply to US distributors despite the national 9.4% start jump.

• Expect stable pricing for 2x4 and 2x6 through early January as the 4.6% US unemployment rate dampens speculative buying for the spring season.

• Utilize the 4.4 months of inventory in the Canadian resale market as a signal that R&R demand will remain flat, reducing pressure on premium grade dimensions.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Maintain 30-day inventory buffers and delay major SPF or SYP contract commitments until January housing permit data is released to see if the 9.4% start increase translates into sustained demand.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow's multi-supplier RFQ system to test pricing across different regions as Canadian supply dynamics shift. Our quote comparison dashboard allows you to track mill lead times in real-time to ensure your 30-day inventory remains optimized.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.