Resolute Closure Squeezes SPF Supply for 6 Months

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The temporary closure of Resolute’s Maniwaki, Quebec sawmill for six months represents a direct and immediate supply reduction in the Eastern Canadian SPF market, impacting procurement managers relying on this region. While winter demand is seasonally slow, removing this capacity—alongside the nine other Quebec plant closures reported since April—creates a significant deficit that will be acutely felt during the high-demand spring and summer framing months (Q2 2025).

For buyers in the US Northeast and upper Midwest, Eastern SPF studs and dimension lumber are staple items. The closure means less volume available in the critical 2x4 and 2x6 stud categories originating from Quebec. Procurement teams should anticipate a swift tightening of availability and subsequent upward pressure on cash prices for prompt Eastern SPF shipments, likely beginning in late January as distributors restock after the holidays. Current inventories across the supply chain are generally lean, meaning this unexpected supply shock cannot be easily absorbed. We expect lead times for specialty Eastern SPF products to extend by 2 to 3 weeks by mid-February.

This supply contraction necessitates strategic sourcing adjustments. Buyers must decide whether to secure needed volumes now, accepting current pricing before the closure impact fully registers, or substitute materials. Substituting Western SPF (WSPF) or Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) will be the primary strategy. However, increased demand diversion towards WSPF will put upward pressure on prices in that market as well, particularly for shorter lengths and 2x4 dimension. SYP remains a viable alternative, but transportation costs and dimensional differences often limit its utility in traditional SPF markets.

Given the six-month timeline, which extends deep into June, the Maniwaki mill will not contribute to supply for the majority of the 2025 building season. This forces buyers to lock in their seasonal needs earlier than usual. We recommend prioritizing securing firm commitments for April and May SPF volumes within Q1. Failure to do so risks paying significant premiums for spot loads or facing potential job delays due to supply shortages during the peak construction window.

Key Takeaways

• Secure Q2 SPF volume commitments by mid-February; the 6-month closure guarantees tighter supply through the peak framing season (Apr-Jun).

• Expect upward pressure on Eastern SPF pricing immediately. Budget for a 5–8% increase in cash prices for prompt shipments through Q1 2025.

• Evaluate SYP and Western SPF as substitutes for Eastern SPF dimension. Increased demand diversion will likely pull WSPF prices higher in response to the Quebec capacity loss.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Actively lock in Q2 SPF inventory needs by the end of January. Focus negotiations on Eastern SPF studs and 2x4 dimension as these categories will feel the supply squeeze most acutely due to the 6-month Quebec capacity loss.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow’s quote comparison dashboard to rapidly evaluate alternative sourcing options (WSPF, SYP) and compare pricing against your traditional Eastern SPF suppliers. Set up automated price alerts specifically for Eastern SPF 2x4 prices to track volatility and trigger purchases before the expected supply-driven price spike.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.