Softwood Lumber AD Review: Preliminary Rates Suggest Future Relief

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The US DOC’s preliminary determination for the AR6 of Antidumping duties on Canadian softwood lumber, covering the 2023 period, is a crucial signal for procurement managers, even though it carries no immediate impact on current cash deposit rates. The key takeaway is that the preliminary AD rates are extremely low, suggesting substantial future relief for US buyers of Canadian dimensional lumber (primarily SPF and Hem-Fir).

For the immediate term (Q2/Q3 2025), nothing changes. Buyers must continue paying the current combined duty rate (AD plus Countervailing Duties, which are still pending release) until the DOC publishes the final determination and subsequent amendments to the cash deposit rate in the Federal Register. This is expected in late August or early September 2025.

The most significant preliminary finding is the “All Others” rate, which applies to the vast majority of Canadian suppliers, set at just 0.66%. This compares favorably to previous AD rates and is a strong indicator that the final AD rate component of the total duty will be near zero. Other key company rates include Canfor at 0.17% and West Fraser at 0.78%, while Resolute received a de minimis 0.00% rate. Past precedent suggests that final rates generally align closely with preliminary findings.

If these low rates are confirmed in the final ruling, buyers should anticipate a significant reduction in the total combined duty rate (AD + CVD) effective in Q4 2025. This reduction will translate directly into lower landed costs for Western Canadian dimensional lumber. Procurement managers should use the 0.66% rate as the basis for modeling cost scenarios for late 2025 inventory acquisition. This potential reduction, however, must be weighed against prevailing market demand—if housing starts rebound aggressively in late 2025, robust demand could offset some of the tariff savings. For now, maintain current inventory levels and prepare to adjust purchasing timing around the August/September final ruling date.

Key Takeaways

• Do not adjust purchasing or inventory levels yet; current duty rates remain in effect until the final ruling, expected August/September 2025.

• The preliminary "All Others" AD rate of 0.66% suggests potential future cost relief for SPF and Hem-Fir starting in Q4 2025.

• Model cost scenarios for late 2025 inventory; a significant duty drop could create a favorable buying window for Canadian product lines.

• Pricing Outlook: STABLE (Immediate)

• Confidence: MEDIUM

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Maintain current purchasing schedules through Q3 2025, as duties are unchanged. Prepare a strategy to capitalize on potential cost savings after the final ruling in August/September. Use the 0.66% rate as a baseline for modeling future landed costs for Canadian dimensional lumber.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow's automated price alerts to track how Western SPF and Hem-Fir pricing reacts to the final DOC ruling in late Q3. Utilize our quote comparison dashboard to instantly evaluate supplier quotes once the duty rates are officially reduced, ensuring you capture the full duty savings.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.