WFP Extends BC Curtailment: Supply Tightens Into Q1 2026

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The extension of the Chemainus, BC, sawmill curtailment into January 2026, combined with immediate temporary slowdowns at WFP’s Saltair, Duke Point, and Cowichan Bay mills, sends a clear signal: Western Canadian supply is constrained moving into the new year. For dimensional lumber buyers focused on Western species, primarily Hem-Fir and higher-grade SPF/Douglas Fir, this translates directly into a tighter supply environment for Q1 2026.

While the late December operational slowdowns (reduced hours and extended holiday breaks) are somewhat seasonal, the open-ended nature of the Chemainus extension—pending a review of market conditions—provides critical support to current pricing levels. The underlying cause cited by WFP is weak “market conditions and available log supply.” This duality is key: weak demand (the cause of the curtailment) acts as a ceiling for price increases, but the resulting reduction in supply acts as a firm floor, preventing the typical year-end price erosion often associated with holiday inventory shifts.

Buyers sourcing from Western Canada should focus their risk management efforts on the first two weeks of January. WFP has stated that regular operations at the three slowing mills are expected to resume on January 6, 2026. However, this restart is explicitly conditional on improved market conditions. If macro demand indicators (like housing starts or builder sentiment) fail to show meaningful improvement in early Q1, WFP may delay the restart or implement further adjustments, rapidly increasing pressure on lead times for Western dimensional products like 2x4s and 2x6s.

For procurement managers, the immediate takeaway is to finalize coverage for early January now. Do not rely on aggressive post-holiday deals for Western wood. The curtailments effectively remove capacity from the market, making supply less elastic if demand suddenly picks up.

Key Takeaways

• Secure coverage for the first two weeks of January now, as the January 6 restart date for WFP’s slowing mills is conditional on market improvements.

• Monitor Western SPF and Hem-Fir lead times immediately post-holiday; expect potential 1-2 week delays if WFP pushes back the scheduled restart date.

• Use this supply constraint as a floor for pricing. If macro demand recovers in Q1 2026, expect immediate upward pressure on Western dimensional pricing.

• The ongoing Chemainus closure removes long-term capacity, suggesting sustained tightness in the high-grade coastal BC lumber market.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Leverage the current stability to finalize Western SPF and Hem-Fir inventory needed through mid-January. If WFP confirms delayed restarts past January 6, immediately increase your purchase volume by 5-7% to cover the anticipated supply gap and avoid price spikes.

How LumberFlow Helps

With supply tightening in BC, use LumberFlow's multi-supplier RFQ system to quickly compare pricing and availability across multiple Western suppliers. Set up automated price alerts specifically for Hem-Fir and Western SPF to track any immediate price support resulting from these significant curtailments.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.