GreenFirst Curtails Ontario Sawmills: SPF Supply Risk Rises

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

GreenFirst’s announcement of a temporary curtailment at three Ontario facilities (Kapuskasing, Hearst, and Cochrane) starting October 6 serves as a critical warning shot for buyers relying on Eastern SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir) dimensional lumber. While the reduction is initially for just one week, it immediately removes volume from the supply pipeline. This localized tightening will be felt most acutely by distributors in the US Northeast and Great Lakes regions, leading to potential minor lead time extensions (1-2 weeks) and immediate upward pressure on spot pricing for standard and stud grades.

Crucially, this is not just a response to low lumber prices; it’s a structural supply chain failure. The idling of Kap Paper, the primary consumer of wood by-products (chips and biomass), creates a massive logistical and cost challenge for GreenFirst. Residual management costs can quickly render sawmilling unprofitable, even if lumber prices are marginally stable. The company noted that this is the fourth pulp/paper mill to close in Ontario in two years, confirming that this residual disposal problem is systemic. The specific mention that the Kapuskasing site may face an extended curtailment elevates the risk profile from short-term volatility to sustained capacity loss.

For pricing, this capacity cut acts as a floor, preventing further price erosion in the short term. We do not anticipate a national price surge, but localized spot pricing for key dimensional products (2x4 and 2x6) sourced from Eastern Canada could see volatility of 1-4% in the immediate two weeks following the curtailment date. Furthermore, GreenFirst explicitly cited elevated US lumber duties (which average over 8% across Canadian producers) as a contributing factor. This emphasizes that high tariffs continue to erode mill profitability, making these types of operational interruptions increasingly likely across the region, especially as winter logging costs rise.

Procurement managers must diversify their risk exposure. While kiln and planer mill operations will continue, the interruption of raw sawmill output signals a brittle supply chain. If your Q4 inventory strategy depends heavily on specific Canadian allocation volumes, use this opportunity to confirm delivery schedules and secure alternative quotes from Western SPF or US South Yellow Pine (SYP) suppliers. The confluence of structural supply issues, low pricing, and high duties suggests that supply reliability, not just price, is the primary risk factor for Eastern SPF moving into the end of the year.

Key Takeaways

• Verify immediate SPF orders starting October 6; expect 1-2 week extension on lead times for Ontario-sourced dimensional lumber and studs.

• Localized spot prices for Eastern SPF (Great Lakes/Northeast) may see 1-4% volatility as buyers scramble to cover immediate needs from the curtailed volume.

• The structural residual management problem, coupled with US duties, signals higher long-term risk for Canadian SPF supply reliability through Q4 2025.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Verify immediate supply commitments for Eastern SPF. If your inventory is lean, secure 1-2 truckloads of critical studs and dimensional stock from alternate sources or pull forward existing orders before October 6. This mitigates potential 1-4% spot price spikes in the Great Lakes region.

How LumberFlow Helps

When supply is suddenly restricted, leverage LumberFlow’s multi-supplier RFQ system to quickly compare quotes from alternative US South (SYP) or Western Canadian SPF suppliers. Use automated price alerts to track Eastern SPF pricing across multiple vendors, ensuring you react swiftly to the forecasted 1-4% localized price movements.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.