GreenFirst Restarts 3 Ontario Mills: SPF Supply Stabilizing

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The restart of three GreenFirst sawmills in Ontario—Kapuskasing, Hearst, and Cochrane—effective the week of October 6, 2025, marks a crucial, albeit conditionally positive, shift for the North American SPF market. For procurement managers, this news translates directly into short-term supply relief and a stabilization of pricing expectations for Eastern Canadian lumber products, including SPF 2x4s, 2x6s, and stud grades.

Historically, temporary mill curtailments in Eastern Canada quickly tighten the supply chain, particularly impacting distributors in the US Northeast and Midwest who rely heavily on truck-based logistics from these regions. The reversal of these closures mitigates the immediate risk of a supply crunch heading into the late fourth quarter. While GreenFirst did not specify the exact capacity being returned, the combined output of three mills represents a significant volume of board feet that will begin filling order pipelines over the next 4 to 8 weeks. This sudden injection of supply counters typical late-year seasonal slowdowns, creating a window of opportunity for buyers.

Pricing Dynamics and Timing: The immediate impact is likely to dampen any recent upward price momentum in the SPF market. Buyers should expect pricing to move from volatile to stable/flat through November, rather than seeing a sharp decline. This is the optimal time to secure Q4 requirements. If you were holding off on purchasing due to tight supply or unfavorable quotes, use the increased competition generated by this available capacity to negotiate better pricing and faster lead times on November and December deliveries.

However, prudence is essential. GreenFirst explicitly stated the restart is contingent on “signs of progress” in government discussions aimed at stabilizing the regional forestry sector, specifically referencing Kap Paper Inc. This indicates that the long-term stability of this capacity is not guaranteed. If these government talks falter, GreenFirst could halt operations again, leading to immediate market panic and price spikes. Therefore, buyers should manage risk by avoiding aggressive over-stocking. We recommend maintaining a prudent inventory level of 6 to 8 weeks maximum, reserving the flexibility to respond quickly if the political situation changes, rather than committing to deep, long-term inventory builds based on this conditional restart.

Key Takeaways

• Leverage the immediate supply boost from the October 6 restart to secure better terms on Q4 SPF orders, specifically for 2x4 and stud grades, while supply is temporarily abundant.

• Recognize the temporary nature of this stability; maintain only 6-8 weeks of inventory due to ongoing political risk associated with the regional supply chain stabilization efforts.

• Monitor Eastern Canadian SPF pricing for stability through November. If prices drop by more than 3% week-over-week, use the opportunity to lock in needed Q1 2026 inventory.

• The restart may temporarily ease pressure on regional trucking capacity, potentially offering slight relief on freight costs into the US Midwest.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Use the increased availability post-October 6 to secure 5-10% more inventory than planned for November, locking in deliveries before year-end. Do not overstock—limit inventory to 8 weeks maximum due to residual supply chain instability risks and reliance on ongoing government talks.

How LumberFlow Helps

LumberFlow's automated price alerts can immediately notify you if the influx of SPF supply begins pulling down regional pricing indices. Use our multi-supplier RFQ system to quickly solicit quotes from multiple Canadian suppliers, ensuring you capture the best available pricing and lead times resulting from this capacity change.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.