Interfor Cuts 250 MMBF: Q4 Lumber Supply Tightens

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

Interfor’s revised operating plans, leading to a further 250 million board feet (MMBF) reduction in Q4 production, represent a major supply-side intervention designed to halt the ongoing slide in dimensional lumber prices. This volume represents a significant chunk—about 26%—of their normal quarterly output (based on Q2 production of 936 MMBF). For procurement managers, the immediate impact is a confirmation that the industry believes prices have hit an unsustainable low, making this action a crucial attempt to set a market floor.

This curtailment volume is evenly split between Canadian operations (affecting Western and Eastern SPF) and US operations (impacting US South SYP and US Pacific Northwest Hem-Fir). This geographic spread means supply tightness will not be isolated to a single species or region. While demand remains sluggish due to ongoing economic uncertainty, removing 250 MMBF from the market pipeline will likely achieve the goal of stabilizing prices, moving the pricing outlook from 'DOWN' to 'STABLE' in the short term. Buyers who have been waiting for the absolute bottom must now contend with the risk that supply lines could tighten faster than expected, particularly for specific high-demand sizes or construction grades.

The timing is critical. Q4 is typically the weakest demand period, but mills are using this window to aggressively manage inventory. If Interfor and other major producers successfully remove excess wood now, distributors face two key risks heading into the new year: First, lead times for commodity items (like 2x4 and 2x6 studs) may stabilize or even creep up by 1-2 weeks as mill order files firm up. Second, if spring construction demand materializes strongly in Q1 2026, the market will quickly flip from a supply surplus to a supply deficit, potentially triggering sharp price increases, especially since prices are currently defined as "unsustainably low" by the CEO.

Procurement strategy must shift from delaying purchases to opportunistic filling. Rather than banking on further price declines, buyers should leverage the current price stability to secure critical inventory needed through the end of the year. Focus purchasing on coverage for the next 30-45 days, prioritizing regional products that are heavily affected by the US South and BC cuts. This proactive approach mitigates the risk of being caught flat-footed should the supply correction succeed and demand slightly improve before the end of the quarter.

Key Takeaways

• Confirm current lead times for regionally specific products (e.g., US South SYP, Western SPF) affected by the 250 MMBF cut, anticipating potential 1-2 week extensions.

• Utilize current "unsustainably low" prices to execute opportunistic fills for high-turnover items, targeting coverage through mid-December to mitigate Q1 price risk.

• Monitor mill inventory levels aggressively; if housing starts unexpectedly rebound in late Q4, this 26% production cut creates immediate upward price pressure in Q1 2026.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Leverage the current price floor to secure 30-45 days of critical inventory (especially studs and commodity grades) before the end of October. Expect lead times to creep up 1-2 weeks as mills manage the 26% capacity reduction.

How LumberFlow Helps

LumberFlow’s Quote Comparison Dashboard allows buyers to immediately assess which suppliers are adjusting pricing based on this significant supply reduction across the US South and Canada.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.