Stimson $50M Expansion: Future Supply & Cost Control

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The announcement by Stimson Lumber regarding the detailed plans for a $50 million investment in a high-speed small-log line in Forest Grove, OR, provides important long-term clarity for procurement managers sourcing Western species, primarily Hem-Fir and Douglas Fir dimension lumber. Critically, the immediate impact on supply and pricing is negligible. The article confirms the existing line will continue operating without pause during construction, meaning current order fulfillment, lead times, and pricing volatility in the PNW region will remain tied to immediate demand signals (e.g., housing starts, mortgage rates) rather than this specific capacity project.

However, the long-term strategic implications are substantial. This investment, targeted for operation in 2026, is a strong vote of confidence in the sustained demand for dimensional lumber, particularly in the Western U.S. The choice of a 350-foot-long HewSaw line from Veisto-Oy is key. HewSaw technology is optimized for high-speed processing of smaller diameter logs, which are increasingly common in managed Western timber rotations. This focus on efficiency and fiber utilization means that once the mill is fully operational, Stimson will likely achieve a lower cost basis per thousand board feet (MBF) for its output compared to older facilities.

For buyers, this translates to future stability. Starting in 2026, this added capacity and efficiency will act as a moderating force on pricing spikes for Western dimension products, such as 2x4s and 2x6s, provided demand remains robust. Procurement teams should begin incorporating this anticipated capacity injection into their 2026 supply models. If housing construction holds steady, this capacity will help prevent the acute supply shortages that often characterize market upturns. We recommend that distributors relying heavily on PNW supply chains monitor the project's construction timeline in late 2025 to gauge the exact ramp-up schedule for the new capacity. While the immediate pricing outlook is stable, the long-term trend favors increased supply and potentially tighter competition among PNW mills, benefiting large-volume buyers.

Key Takeaways

• The expansion causes no immediate supply disruption; the existing line runs through construction. Keep current Hem-Fir/DF purchasing strategies stable through Q3 2025.

• The $50M investment in small-log tech signals lower production costs starting in 2026, creating future price moderation for Western dimension stock.

• Anticipate increased Western lumber availability starting in Q1 2026. Use this outlook to justify longer-term commitments in late 2025.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Maintain current inventory levels for Western species (Hem-Fir/DF) through Q2 2025. Start modeling potential increased supply and localized price competition in the PNW market beginning Q4 2025 based on the 2026 capacity ramp-up.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow's forecasting and inventory management tools to model the impact of increased Western capacity in 2026 on your regional costs. Utilize our multi-supplier RFQ system to benchmark pricing trends for Hem-Fir and Douglas Fir against the projected lower cost basis as the new high-speed line ramps up production.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.