Tariff Threat Delayed Until April 2: What It Means for SPF Pricing

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The suspension of the 25% tariff until April 2 is the most significant short-term news for dimensional lumber buyers. Earlier this week, the threat of this levy introduced immediate uncertainty, leading to panicked pricing and potential forward hedging, particularly for Canadian-sourced products like SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir) and Hem-Fir.

This delay immediately halts the expected cost inflation that would have added an estimated $120 to $150 per thousand board feet (MBF) to all imported Canadian dimensional lumber. For procurement managers, this means the immediate pressure to pay inflated prices to beat the tariff deadline has been relieved. Prices should stabilize quickly, potentially even seeing a slight retreat as previously nervous orders are fulfilled and the market digests the four-week extension.

However, this is a pause, not a resolution. The clock is now ticking toward April 2. For Canadian mills, the incentive is high to maximize shipments into the US market before that deadline. We expect a surge of volume—both studs and random lengths—originating from Western Canada over the next three weeks. While this temporarily eases supply, buyers should anticipate logistical bottlenecks and extended lead times near the border as the deadline approaches. If you need delivery before the deadline, prioritize booking transportation immediately.

The strategic focus must shift to inventory planning for Q2. If the tariff is implemented in early April, the resulting 25% cost increase on Canadian supply will immediately translate to higher prices in the US, forcing buyers to quickly seek alternatives. Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) markets, predominantly serving the US South and Southeast, would experience massive spillover demand, driving up SYP pricing across the board as well. Use this window of stability to critically evaluate your Q2 exposure and secure enough inventory to bridge the gap past the volatile April 2 date.

Key Takeaways

• Pricing Stability: Prices for SPF should stabilize through March. Secure critical, immediate-need inventory volumes now while the threat of the 25% tariff is suspended.

• Logistics Warning: Canadian mills will push volume heavily. Book transportation and confirm delivery dates before April 2 to avoid potential border delays and logistics rate spikes.

• Hedge Strategy: Prepare inventory strategies for a potential 25% cost jump post-April 2. Increase exposure to non-tariffed US domestic supply (e.g., SYP) as a hedge.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: STABLE Confidence Level: MEDIUM Recommended Action: Focus purchasing on delivery dates before April 2. Use the next three weeks to build a crucial inventory buffer, prioritizing high-volume SPF items. If the tariff is implemented, expect SPF prices to surge 20-25% overnight; do not wait until the last week of March.

How LumberFlow Helps

LumberFlow's automated price alerts are crucial for monitoring the inevitable volatility leading up to April 2, allowing you to react instantly to market shifts. Use the multi-supplier RFQ system now to lock in stable pricing from multiple Canadian and US mills before the deadline triggers panic buying and tight supply.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.