Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The dimensional lumber market is currently defined by an 8.2% price surge over the last three weeks, a momentum-driven rally that is effectively decoupling from some of the softer macro indicators in the housing sector. While recent data shows that 62.2% of homebuyers paid below list price in 2025—the highest share in years—this cooling in the existing home market has not yet translated to price relief for framing lumber. Instead, the market is reacting to supply-side constraints and a broad increase in construction input costs, which rose 2.8% year-over-year as of December.

For procurement managers, the drop in Brazilian wood exports is a critical secondary signal. Pine sawnwood exports from Brazil fell 26.0% in value and 18.0% in volume year-over-year. More drastically, pine plywood exports collapsed, with value down 48.0%. This contraction in offshore supply alternatives puts additional pressure on domestic Western SPF and SYP production to meet current building schedules. Even if the housing market is shifting in favor of buyers through concessions and 7.9% average discounts, the 'cost-push' inflation from other construction materials is keeping floor prices high.

Trade policy remains the primary risk factor for further price escalation. According to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), materials most exposed to tariffs are seeing 'rapid escalation,' with nonferrous metals up nearly 62% over 12 months. While lumber has its own specific trade dynamics, the general upward pressure on construction inputs (nonresidential inputs up 3.2% YOY) creates a high-cost environment where mills are less likely to offer price concessions. The current high volatility regime (15.7%) suggests that while the trend is upward, buyers should expect choppy price action and should not wait for a 'perfect' dip that may not materialize.

Looking ahead to the next seven days, our ML models predict a further 2.8% increase in framing lumber prices. This aligns with the current UPTREND strength of 0.81. Given that the 12-week trend is sitting 9.2% above the moving average, the market is technically overextended but shows no signs of an immediate reversal. Buyers in the US North and Midwest, who rely heavily on SPF, should prioritize securing February and early March shipments now. Waiting for the 'buyer's market' sentiment in the housing data to hit the lumber yard is a risky strategy, as the supply-side constraints and tariff-related cost increases are currently the dominant market drivers.

Key Takeaways

• Lock in February Western SPF volume immediately to avoid an expected 2.8% short-term price increase predicted by ML models.

• Monitor the 48% drop in Brazilian plywood exports as a signal of tightening global supply that may shift more demand to domestic mills.

• Account for a 2.8% YOY rise in construction inputs when budgeting Q1 projects, as tariff-exposed materials continue to drive up total project costs.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Commit to remaining February framing volume before the Feb 6 forecast target. The combination of 8.2% price momentum and rising construction input costs makes waiting for a correction high-risk. Expect a 2.8% price hike in the coming week.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use the weekly price forecast to set your maximum strike price, then validate your timing against our free daily market insights. Inside LumberFlow, the agentic sentiment nudge flags these bullish shifts at the RFQ level to help you secure volume before the next 2.8% uptick.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.