Housing Starts Diverge: Single-Family Up Amid Labor Slump

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The current market presents a classic tug-of-war between positive sector-specific demand and weakening macro-labor indicators. On the bullish side, the ML forecast predicts a 1.4% price increase over the next 7 days, likely anchored by the 5.4% jump in single-family starts (874,000 SAAR). Because single-family units consume significantly more dimensional lumber per square foot than multi-family projects, this specific growth provides a quantitative floor for framing lumber pricing in the short term.

However, this demand signal is countered by a deteriorating labor market. The loss of 3,100 residential construction jobs in December contributes to a net loss of 41,400 jobs over the past year. This represents the longest stretch of annual labor losses since the Great Recession. For procurement managers, this means that even if starts are rising, the physical capacity to frame those houses is constrained. Expect lead times to remain stable or even shorten if labor shortages prevent builders from pulling wood from yards at a normal pace.

While consumer sentiment reached its highest level since September 2025 and tariff fears are receding, the broader economic revisions—downwardly adjusting previous payrolls by 76,000 jobs—suggest a cooling economy. This creates a divergence: the ML model sees upward price momentum based on futures and starts, but the macro data suggests a ceiling on how high those prices can actually fly.

We recommend a 'buy-as-needed' strategy for the next 14-21 days. The 0.67 confidence in an upward move justifies filling immediate holes in 2x4 and 2x6 inventories to beat the 1.4% predicted lift, but the lack of labor support makes a sustained price rally unlikely in the current quarter.

Key Takeaways

• Single-family starts rose 5.4% to 874k units; expect localized demand for framing lumber to outpace multi-family segments in the short term.

• Construction employment fell by 11,000 jobs in December; monitor labor-driven project delays which may cap total lumber throughput at the dealer level.

• ML forecast suggests a 1.4% price increase; use this 7-day window to secure immediate needs before short-term momentum pushes mill quotes higher.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Secure 30-day inventory of framing lumber now to capitalize on the predicted 1.4% short-term price lift, but avoid heavy long positions until residential construction employment reverses its 8-year decline.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use LumberFlow's quote comparison dashboard to benchmark your current SPF and SYP offers against the predicted 1.4% increase. Our multi-supplier RFQ system helps you identify mills with ready-to-ship inventory before labor-related lead time extensions hit.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.