US Trade Court Voids 10% Tariffs; Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.3

Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The US Court of International Trade ruling against Section 122 global tariffs removes a 10% surcharge on global supply chains. This is a significant shift as total US construction spending reached a rate of $2,185.5 billion in March. The ruling stabilizes landed costs for imported specialty products and non-Canadian softwoods. While the Alberta and BC supply chains are not directly affected by this specific ruling, the removal of duties on industrial goods reduces overall project cost pressure for the rest of Q2 2026.

Residential construction spending grew 1.7% to $929.7 billion in March, but other indicators suggest a slowdown. NAHB reports that multifamily developer hiring plans fell 69% in April. Mortgage rates averaging 6.37% typically reduce new sales and lumber takeoffs. After a 6.3% rise over the last 12 weeks, market momentum is stalling as demand signals turn cautious.

Buyers should move to a defensive position. The ML forecast predicts a 1.4% price drop, and job cuts rose 38% in April, increasing the risk of overpaying for stock. Although prices rose 1.5% over the last three weeks, the gap between current pricing and forward-looking demand suggests a cooling period. We recommend a 14-day supply and avoiding speculative buys until mortgage rates stabilize or distributor inventories decrease.

Expect framing lumber prices to soften through late Q2 2026. Weekly jobless claims of 200,000 and a cooling labor market are tempering builder optimism. The combination of the tariff reversal and higher borrowing costs will likely push the market back to normal volatility. The market is currently overextended, a state that usually precedes a price correction. Keep inventory lean until these macro headwinds are fully reflected in cash prices.

Key Takeaways

• Renegotiate quotes on imported materials that previously included the 10% global tariffs now that the US Trade Court has voided them.

• Maintain framing lumber inventory at 14 days because 6.37% mortgage rates and a 69% drop in hiring plans indicate a demand ceiling.

• Watch for a 1.4% price correction; the recent 1.5% three-week price gain is losing momentum and will likely reverse by mid-May 2026.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: DOWN

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Delay large volume orders until the second week of May to capture a projected 1.4% price decrease. Limit current stock to a 14-day supply to mitigate exposure to 6.37% mortgage rates.

How LumberFlow Helps

Execute workflows in LumberFlow and use the weekly price forecast to protect margins. Monitor daily market insights to see if the 38% spike in job cuts accelerates the 1.4% price correction.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.