Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The extension of the Chemainus sawmill shutdown through 2026 represents a significant long-term removal of coastal capacity. When combined with the upcoming two-week curtailments at the Ladysmith and Saltair sawmills starting in February, we are seeing a concentrated reduction in Western Canadian supply. The company's narrative points to 'weak market demand' and 'high tariffs', but the quantitative reality is that the Framing Lumber Composite has moved UP +10.3% in just three weeks, showing how tariffs disproportionately affecting the demand for Canadian lumber. This price momentum is the dominant signal for buyers right now, suggesting that the market is already pricing in these supply-side destructions.

Buyers should be wary of the 'weak demand' headlines found in the news. The current volatility regime is HIGH at 17.7%, and with an RSI of 69, we are approaching overbought territory. However, the ML forecast remains bullish, predicting an additional 2.3% price increase by January 30th. This indicates that the floor is rising despite the broader economic concerns mentioned by mill operators. The combination of labor strikes at the La-kwa sa muqw Forestry partnership and permitting delays means that even if demand remains tepid, the 'economic log supply' is restricted enough to maintain upward price pressure.

For distributors in the Western US and those relying on coastal shipments, lead times are likely to stretch as Western Forest Products reduces its footprint. This is the first analysis of this specific event, and we are establishing a bullish stance based on the 12-week uptrend strength of 0.87. We recommend prioritizing physical inventory over speculative waiting, as the supply floor in British Columbia continues to crumble under the weight of high operating costs and tariff impacts.

Key Takeaways

• WFP Chemainus idle through 2026 removes consistent coastal capacity; expect tighter supply for Western species through February.

• Price momentum is UP +10.3% over 3 weeks, which overrides the narrative of 'weak demand' found in recent mill reports.

• Volatility is HIGH (17.7%); prioritize firm quotes and short-term coverage to avoid being caught in the current +2.3% weekly uptrend.

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP

Confidence Level: HIGH

Recommended Action: Lock in Western SPF and Hem-Fir requirements for February immediately. Current momentum suggests a 2.3% price increase by Jan 30, making wait-and-see strategies risky given the 10.3% three-week surge already in progress.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use the weekly price forecast to track if this +10.3% momentum begins to plateau. Procurement teams can use LumberFlow to compare quotes across multiple Western suppliers, while monitoring the free daily market insights for further BC curtailment news.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.