Impact on Your Procurement Strategy

The indefinite closure of the Lac-Saint-Jean sawmill in Métabetchouan-Lac-à-la-Croix, Quebec, serves as a stark reminder of the mounting pressure on Canadian producers. With 128 workers laid off, this move directly removes capacity from a market that is already showing significant upward price momentum. While the cooperative is shifting some processing to its Lignarex and Hébertville facilities to offset the loss, the net reduction in regional production will likely exacerbate the current 8.8% price rally seen over the last three weeks. For distributors in the US Northeast and Great Lakes regions, who rely heavily on Quebec production, this closure signals a tightening of the spot market for framing lumber.

The general manager's comment about "stretching the elastic" highlights the precarious financial position many smaller cooperatives face under the current US tariff regime. This isn't just an isolated event; it's a symptom of a broader market where high volatility (currently at 16.1% ) and trade costs are forcing supply-side corrections. Interestingly, while the narrative from the mill focuses on "weak markets," our quantitative data shows a market that is actually heating up. The framing lumber composite has maintained a strong 12-week uptrend , currently sitting 11.8% above its 12-week moving average . This suggests that while the mill's internal financials were underwater, the broader market has already begun to price in these types of supply contractions.

Looking ahead, our ML forecast predicts an additional 2.8% price hike over the next seven days, even as momentum shows signs of "decelerating" from its recent peaks. Buyers should note the technical signals: with an RSI of 70 , the market is technically "overbought," which often precedes a plateau. However, with supply being pulled offline indefinitely, the fundamental floor for prices is rising. We recommend a proactive approach—rather than waiting for a market correction, procurement managers should recognize that current supply destruction is a catalyst for higher short-term pricing. Expect lead times for Quebec-sourced material to extend as remaining mills absorb the redirected demand. If you have open requirements for late February or early March , moving now is the lower-risk play before the full impact of this capacity reduction is reflected in broader composite pricing.

Key Takeaways

• Quebec's Lac-Saint-Jean mill closure removes capacity as framing lumber prices have already climbed 8.8% in three weeks , signaling tighter regional supply.

• The ML forecast predicts a 2.8% price increase by Feb 6 ; with high volatility at 16.1% , buyers should prioritize securing volume over chasing lower prices.

• While technicals show an overbought RSI of 70 , fundamental supply cuts like this indefinite closure provide a strong floor for the current 12-week uptrend .

Market Outlook

Pricing Trend: UP

Confidence Level: MEDIUM

Recommended Action: Finalize February framing lumber orders by Feb 6 to avoid the projected 2.8% price increase . With Quebec supply tightening and a 12-week uptrend firmly in place, waiting for a pullback carries significant upside risk.

How LumberFlow Helps

Use the weekly price forecast to monitor if this supply cut accelerates the 2.8% predicted hike . Buyers should also check the free daily market insights for updates on other regional mill curtailments and execute trades via LumberFlow to ensure supply certainty.

Ready to stay ahead of market trends? Book a consultation with our team to see how LumberFlow's procurement platform transforms dimensional lumber buying.