LumberFlow

Published July 3, 2026

Canada Softwood Duty & USMCA Status Update, July 2026

AR7 preliminary rates are lower than today's operative duties, but they don't take effect yet. USMCA wasn't renewed 'in its current form' on July 1 — but it stays in force. Here's what actually changed and what didn't.

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Softwood lumber bundles on a flatbed truck at a customs logistics checkpoint
Canadian softwood lumber duty rates are still governed by current cash-deposit rules, not the AR7 preliminary rates.

The short answer

Nothing changed in the live cash-deposit rates between June and July 2026. The operative US duty burden on Canadian softwood lumber is still set by the 2025 sixth administrative review (AR6) final results plus the 10% Section 232 tariff effective October 14, 2025 — a combined burden of roughly 45.16% for most non-selected companies, 57.59% for Canfor, and 36.47% for West Fraser.

What did move is the outlook. Commerce published preliminary seventh-review (AR7) results on April 14, 2026 that were meaningfully lower on the antidumping side for several companies, and on July 1, 2026 USTR confirmed the United States did not renew USMCA "in its current form" — while keeping the agreement in force during ongoing discussions. Neither development changes today's duty bill. Both are worth watching over the next one to three months.

Current operative rates vs. AR7 preliminary rates

AR7 preliminary rates cover calendar year 2024 entries and do not take effect until Commerce publishes final results — expected around August 12, 2026, or October 2026 if extended. Until then, the "current" column below is what actually governs cash deposits.

Duty typeCanfor (current / AR7 preliminary)West Fraser (current / AR7 preliminary)Non-selected (current / AR7 preliminary)
Antidumping (AD)35.47% / 16.85%9.65% / 4.77%20.53% / 10.66%
Countervailing (CVD)12.12% / n/a (not examined)16.82% / 15.93%14.63% / 14.17%

Sources: Commerce/Federal Register AD amended final results (September 11, 2025), CVD final results (August 12, 2025), and AR7 AD/CVD preliminary results (April 14, 2026). Resolute was also selected as an AR7 mandatory respondent (preliminary AD 13.25%, CVD 11.70%) but is not shown here because it is not tracked separately on the LumberFlow duty tracker. Figures exclude the separate 10% Section 232 tariff, which applies on top of AD/CVD for all companies.

Generic trade folders and customs paperwork beside softwood lumber samples
Administrative reviews, USMCA discussions, and cash-deposit rates move on different timelines.

What's actually in motion right now

Three separate processes are running at once, and it's easy to conflate them. First, the AR7 administrative review (calendar year 2024 entries) is past its preliminary stage and awaiting final results, expected by roughly August 12, 2026 under the statutory 120-day clock, or October 2026 if Commerce extends it. Second, the AR8 review (calendar year 2025 entries) was only just initiated on March 9, 2026, with Resolute and West Fraser selected as mandatory respondents in the spring; final results aren't due until January 31, 2027. Third, USMCA/CUSMA Chapter 10 binational panel challenges to earlier reviews — including the fifth and sixth reviews — remain ongoing and can independently delay liquidation on affected entries regardless of what Commerce decides in AR7 or AR8.

The July 1, 2026 USMCA joint-review statement sits outside all three of those processes. USTR's language — the agreement was not renewed "in its current form" but remains in force — is a broader trade-policy signal, not a softwood-specific ruling. It has not changed any AD/CVD rate and Canadian lumber remains exempt from broader IEEPA-style tariffs as long as USMCA compliance holds.

None of this should be read as duty relief that has already arrived. Cash-deposit rates only change when Commerce publishes final results, and today's operative rates are still the ones set in 2025.

What buyers should do, by role

Importers
Keep paying cash deposits at today's operative rates — do not assume the AR7 preliminary numbers apply to current entries. Track producer/exporter identity carefully, since rates vary significantly by company and non-selected status.
Distributors & wholesalers
Model both scenarios — AR7 final results confirming something close to the preliminary rates, and AR7 final results reverting closer to today's higher rates — before making long-lead sourcing commitments into August or September.
Builders & buyers
Duty changes flow into landed cost with a lag. Don't price in a rate cut until Commerce's final results are published — treat the current 45.16% / 57.59% / 36.47% figures as the operating assumption through at least August.
Finance & planning teams
Watch the August 12, 2026 statutory deadline for AR7 final results as the single most important near-term catalyst, with October 2026 as the extended-deadline fallback.

Frequently asked questions

What is the current US tariff on Canadian softwood lumber in July 2026?
The operative combined burden (AD + CVD + Section 232) is approximately 45.16% for most non-selected companies, 57.59% for Canfor, and 36.47% for West Fraser. These figures come from the 2025 sixth administrative review final results plus the 10% Section 232 tariff effective October 14, 2025 — not the newer preliminary rates below.
Are Canadian softwood lumber duties about to go down?
Possibly, but not yet. Commerce published preliminary seventh-review (AR7) results on April 14, 2026 with lower antidumping rates for Canfor (16.85% vs. 35.47% today) and non-examined companies (10.66% vs. 20.53% today). These are preliminary only — they do not take effect until Commerce issues final results, expected around August 12, 2026, or October 2026 if extended.
Did the USMCA trade agreement end in July 2026?
No. USTR said on July 1, 2026 that the United States did not agree to renew USMCA "in its current form," but the agreement remains in force while both countries continue joint-review discussions. This is a policy signal, not a new softwood-specific ruling, and it has not changed any AD/CVD duty rate.
What is the difference between AD/CVD duties and the Section 232 tariff on lumber?
Antidumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties are set through Commerce's annual administrative reviews and target specific unfair-trade findings. The Section 232 tariff is a separate 10% national-security tariff on softwood timber and lumber, effective October 14, 2025, that stacks on top of AD/CVD rather than replacing them.

Track the full timeline

For the complete rate history back to 2018, a landed-cost calculator under DDP or FOB terms, and every timeline event behind these numbers with source links, see the Canadian softwood lumber duty tracker, and check the weekly lumber forecast for how these trade signals are feeding into pricing.

Sources

  • USTR, Statement on the USMCA Joint Review, July 1, 2026
  • Commerce/Federal Register, AD and CVD preliminary results, seventh administrative review, April 14, 2026
  • Commerce/Federal Register, initiation of eighth AD/CVD administrative reviews, March 9, 2026
  • Government of Canada, softwood lumber recent developments and FAQ pages, updated through May 2026
  • Commerce/Federal Register, amended final AD results (September 11, 2025) and final CVD results (August 12, 2025)

This page is an informational market summary, not legal, customs, or trade advice, and reflects public data available as of July 3, 2026. Combined percentages are simple arithmetic across separate AD, CVD, and Section 232 layers, not a single Commerce-issued rate. Consult a licensed customs broker or trade attorney for compliance guidance.