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Featured Insight

Key Economic Metric Update
Featured
January 14, 2026

Home Sales Up 18.7% YoY: Secure Framing Needs Now

New home sales are up 18.7% YoY while framing lumber prices are forecast to rise 1.4%. Learn how macro trends impact your Q1 lumber procurement strategy.

Market Analysis Articles

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Jan 13

Construction Jobs Dip 11k as Custom Homes Show Resilience

US construction jobs fell by 11k in Dec 2025, but custom home starts rose 6%. Learn how this labor shift impacts lumber pricing and procurement strategy.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Jan 12

LumberFlow Market Pulse | The upcoming 800 MMBF Supply Cliff, week 2 2026

Lumber market analysis for Jan 12-18, 2026. Insights on the 800 MMBF capacity cliff, Trump's tariff delay, and the 2.6% surge in Southern Pine prices.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Jan 10

Housing Starts Diverge: Single-Family Up Amid Labor Slump

Lumber prices predicted to rise 1.4% as single-family starts jump 5.4%, despite a loss of 11,000 construction jobs. Get the January 2026 market outlook.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Jan 9

Lumber Demand Signals Rise Despite Tighter Mortgage Credit

US mortgage purchase apps up 20% YoY, signaling strong 2026 lumber demand. ML forecast predicts 1.3% price rise despite tighter mortgage credit standards.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Jan 9

West Fraser’s $409M Write-Down: Navigating the Lumber Downcycle

West Fraser writes off $409M in US lumber goodwill. Analysts predict a 1.3% short-term price increase. Learn what this means for 2026 lumber procurement.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Jan 8

Lumber Outlook: Construction Labor Surge vs. Mortgage Dips

Construction job openings hit 292k while lumber prices are forecasted to rise 1.3%. See how macro labor trends impact your Q1 lumber procurement strategy.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Jan 7

2026 Outlook: Soft Macro Signals vs. Rising Lumber Futures

Lumber prices projected to rise 1.3% despite a dip in Canadian construction investment and US consumer confidence. See our 2026 procurement strategy.

Mill Capacity Update
Market Analysis
Jan 7

Quebec Mill Automation: Boosting Efficiency Amid Price Hikes

Quebec's St-Elzéar sawmill triples productivity with AI. Learn how this and a projected 1.3% price hike impact Eastern lumber procurement strategies.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 23

Affordability Gains Meet Rising Mill Costs: Q1 Buying Guide

US mortgage affordability improves **7.3% YoY** while Canadian mill costs rise **0.9%** . Analyze what this means for lumber procurement in 2026.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Dec 23

LumberFlow Market Pulse | 45% Total Duties & SYP Surges: The Q1 Procurement Pivot - Week 52, 2025

Lumber market analysis for Dec 22-28, 2025. SYP prices surge $27, Canadian duties hit 45%, and US pending home sales drop. Strategies for Q1 2026 procurement.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 20

Housing Slowdown Signals Q1 Lumber Price Softening

US pending home sales fall 5.8% in Dec 2025, signaling a weak Q1 for lumber demand. Analyze the impact of inventory growth and consumer sentiment on SPF/SYP.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 18

Construction Backlogs Hit 22-Month Low as Demand Cools

Construction backlogs drop to 8.1 months while residential hiring stalls. Analysis of what falling mortgage apps mean for lumber procurement in Q1 2026.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 17

Canadian Starts Jump 9.4% but US Jobs Cool: Buy Strategy

Canadian housing starts rose **9.4%** while US job growth slowed to **64k**. Analyst insights on what this means for SPF and SYP lumber procurement.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 15

LumberFlow Market Pulse | Capacity Cuts and Rate Drops Signal the Q1 Floor

Lumber market bottom confirmed by mill capacity cuts and Fed rate drops. Q1 contract coverage is critical. Use LumberFlow to secure volume.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 12

Macro Headwinds Mount: 7.2% Vacancy Signals Q1 Lumber Slowdown

Dimensional lumber demand faces headwinds as US apartment vacancies hit a record **7.2%**. Analyst review of jobs, rates, and investor activity.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Dec 11

Macro Shift: Fed Rate Cut and 19% YoY Purchase App Jump

The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, driving mortgage credit availability up. Learn how the 19.0% YoY jump in purchase applications impacts dimensional lumber...

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Dec 10

Labor Stability: 7.7M Openings Limit Lumber Pricing Downside

October JOLTS data showed job openings stable at 7.7M. We analyze how sustained labor strength supports R&R demand and limits dimensional lumber pricing down...

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Dec 9

Income Rises, CRE Stress: Why Lumber Prices Remain Stable

US income rose 0.4%, boosting R&R demand, but multifamily delinquency rates signal stress. LumberFlow analyzes the impact on dimensional lumber prices.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Dec 4

Macro Mixed Signals: Jobs Dip, But Housing Loans Hold Firm

Private employment fell by 32k, but 1-4 family construction loans rose 0.5% Y/Y. Analysis for lumber buyers on pricing and Q1 demand timing.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 27

Purchase Apps Surge 20% YOY; HPI Rises 2.2% in Q3

Lumber demand looks resilient: purchase mortgage applications jumped 20% YOY, driven by 6.23% rates. Prepare Q1 coverage now.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Nov 26

2026 Demand Surge: Fannie Mae Projects 6.0% Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates dropping to 6.0% in 2026 and home sales hitting 5.08M. Lumber buyers must secure Q1 supply now to hedge against Q2 price s...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 26

Housing Sales Jump 1.9%; PPI Rises 0.3%. Lumber Cost Pressures Remain.

Pending Home Sales rose **1.9%** in October, stabilizing R&R demand. Analyze how rising PPI inflation impacts dimensional lumber pricing and inventory strategy.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 22

Soft Demand Signal: Residential Jobs Down, Consumers Pull Back

Residential job losses (**44,900** annual decline) and plunging consumer sentiment signal soft demand for dimensional lumber into Q1 2026. Actionable advice ...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 19

Builder Confidence Up 1 Pt; Canada Starts Drop 17%

US builder confidence rose 1 point, but 41% of builders cut prices. Canadian housing starts dropped 17%. Analysis for dimensional lumber buyers.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 18

US Housing Demand Surges 13.4%; Residential Spend Up 0.8%

New US home sales spiked 13.4% in October, signaling strong Q1 lumber demand. Residential construction spending rose 0.8%. Buyers must act now.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 16

Backlog Dips, Delinquency Rises: Weak Signals for Q1 Lumber

Contractor confidence and backlog fell in October. With mortgage delinquencies hitting **3.99%**, lumber buyers should brace for weaker Q1 demand and downwar...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 7

Macro Headwinds: Job Cuts Surge 183%, Dimming Lumber Demand

Lumber demand faces severe headwinds as US job cuts surge 183% in October. Analysts advise buyers to keep lean inventory and anticipate Q4 price drops.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 6

Housing Demand Slows: Purchase Apps Drop 1.0%

Lumber buyers review ADP employment and mortgage application data. Purchase apps fell 1.0% WOW, suggesting stable lumber pricing near term.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Nov 4

Housing Cools, Rents Drop: Lumber Demand Softens Q4

US housing cools and rents drop 0.8% in October, signaling soft Q4 lumber demand. Analyst advice: Delay major purchases and target early January restocking.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 31

Mortgage Rates Hit 6.17%: Demand Floor Firms Up

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.17% for the 4th consecutive week, firming up US housing demand. Lumber buyers should increase coverage now before prices react.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Oct 29

Macro Uncertainty Stalls Lumber Demand; Wait for Shutdown End

Lumber demand is stalled by the **five-week government shutdown** and slowing home price growth (1.5% YOY). Lumber buyers should delay major purchases.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Oct 25

Macro Demand Stable: Mortgage Rates Dip to 6.3% for 2025 End

Fannie Mae forecasts 2025 mortgage rates at 6.3%. We analyze how 3.0% CPI and stable consumer sentiment impact dimensional lumber demand and purchasing strat...

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Oct 21

Softwood Lumber Plummets 10.7%; Buyer Window Opens

Canadian softwood lumber prices crashed **10.7%** in September, offering a massive buy window for US distributors. Analyze the market stability and purchasin...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 16

Macro Mix: Residential Cooling, Backlog Holds at 8.5 Months

Residential mortgage applications fell 3.0% WoW, but construction backlog holds at 8.5 months. Get actionable lumber pricing insights for Q4.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 11

Flat Sentiment & Weak Jobs Signal Stable Q4 Lumber Demand

US consumer sentiment is flat (55 index points), signaling weak R&R demand. Canadian employment rose **60,000**. Buyers should maintain stable inventory.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 10

Mortgage Rates Hit 1-Year Low, Stabilizing Lumber Demand Floor

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.30% (a 1-year low), stabilizing dimensional lumber demand. Learn why buyers should cover Q4 inventory now, especially R&R materials.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 9

Mortgage Dip & Soft Rents: Lumber Demand Signals Cool

Weekly US mortgage applications dipped 1%, while multifamily rent growth cooled to 0.6%. Lumber buyers face mixed demand signals. Analysts advise focusing on...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 7

Multifamily Construction Time Hits 19.6 Months: Lumber Demand Impact

US multifamily construction time dropped slightly to 19.6 months in 2024. See the regional impact on dimensional lumber demand and procurement strategy.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 6

Cautious Hiring Outlook: Lowest Since 2009 Signals Weak Q4 Lumber Demand

US job cuts fell 37% in September, but YTD hiring plans are the lowest since 2009. Lumber buyers should maintain lean inventory and prepare for weak Q4 demand.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 3

Macro Headwinds: Rates Hit 6.34%, Construction Labor Softens

US mortgage rates hit 6.34%, coupled with slowing construction labor in Canada. Analyze the impact on SPF and SYP pricing and Q4 inventory strategy.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 2

High Rates & Cooling Jobs Signal Q4 Lumber Demand Drop

High mortgage rates (6.46%) and cooling construction labor (openings down sharply) confirm sustained weakness in dimensional lumber demand. Buyers should del...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Oct 1

PHSI Jumps 4.0% M/M; Construction Jobs Drop 115K

Pending Home Sales rose 4.0% M/M in August, but the loss of 115,000 construction jobs signals future lumber demand contraction. Buyers must stay lean.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Sep 26

Macro Snapshot: 6.30% Rates Chill Existing Home Sales

Lumber buyers face bifurcated demand as **6.30%** mortgage rates slow housing turnover, while strong 3.8% Q2 GDP supports R&R spending.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Sep 22

Cooling Construction Jobs Signal Easing Lumber Demand Pressure

Construction employment shed **7,000 jobs** in August, signaling cooling demand. Learn how this impacts SPF and SYP pricing and inventory strategy for distri...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Sep 18

Rate Cuts Ignite Mortgage Surge; Housing Starts Drop 8.5%

The Fed and BoC cut rates by 25 bps, dropping mortgage rates to 6.39%. August Housing Starts fell 8.5%. Analyst view for lumber buyers.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Sep 9

Residential Job Losses Signal Softening Lumber Demand

US construction employment fell by 7,000 in August, signaling cooling demand. Multifamily lending, however, increased by 17%. Actionable lumber analysis.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 29

Mortgage Rates Hit **10-Month Low**; Affordability Boosts Q4 Lumber Demand

US mortgage rates hit a 10-month low of 6.56% while affordability improves 4.1% YOY. Lumber buyers should prepare for stronger Q4 framing demand.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 22

Housing Rises 2.0% M/M; Macro Slowdown Confirmed

US existing home sales rose 2.0% M/M, but macro signals weakened. Analyze the impact of 6.58% mortgage rates and 12.0% Y/Y lumber price gains on procurement ...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 21

Housing Prices Drop 3rd Month; 6.68% Rates Suppress Demand

US home prices fell for the third month as 6.68% rates persist. Lumber buyers should maintain lean inventory and prioritize JIT purchasing strategies for Q4 ...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 20

US Starts Surge 5.2%; Tight SPF Supply Expected Q3/Q4

US Housing Starts climbed 5.2% in July, signaling strong dimensional lumber demand. Analysts warn strong Canadian domestic construction will limit Q3 supply.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 19

Mortgage Rates Drive US Demand Surge; Credit Tightens

US housing demand boosted by mortgage rates hitting a 10-month low of 6.53%, but tightening construction credit signals long-term risk for lumber buyers.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 15

Mortgage Rate Drop to 6.58% Signals Demand Push for SPF & SYP

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.58%, boosting purchase applications. Lumber buyers must anticipate demand growth despite 2.8% YOY builder input inflation.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 14

Rate Drop to 6.67% Spurs Refi Boom; Lumber Demand Signal Mixed

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.67%, driving a 23% refi spike. Lumber buyers should prepare for accelerated demand if rates fall further, despite weak 1.0% W-o-W...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 12

Modular/Panelized Share Static at 3% - Minimal Demand Impact

Off-site construction (modular/panelized) held a stable 3% share of US single-family completions in 2024. See the impact on dimensional lumber demand.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 9

Macro Headwinds: Mortgage Demand Eases & MF Rents Diverge

US mortgage demand eased in Q2, signaling future SF headwinds. Multifamily demand diverges: strong Midwest vs. weak Sun Belt. Strategy: Lean Q4 inventory.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 7

Mortgage Rates Drop to 6.77%; Purchase Apps Up 2.0% - Demand Floor?

Mortgage rates hit 6.77%, boosting purchase applications by 2.0% and refi by 5.0%. Lumber buyers must prepare for stabilizing demand and R&R growth.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 5

Construction Spending Plummets: Lumber Demand Softens

US Residential Construction Spending fell 0.7% in June, with single-family down 5.3% YoY. This signals weak lumber demand and a soft pricing outlook.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 2

Macro Signals Point to Softening Demand; Residential Spending Down 0.7%

Residential construction spending fell 0.7% in June, signaling cooling demand. Learn how negative payroll revisions impact lumber pricing and inventory strat...

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Aug 1

Lumber Demand Softens: Job Cuts Spike & Housing Prices Fall in 14 Metros

Lumber demand is softening as job cuts spike 29% and home prices fall in 14 major metros. Analyst advice: Maintain lean inventory and delay forward buying.

Key Economic Metric Update
Market Analysis
Jul 31

Macro Headwinds Slow Housing, GDP Up 3.0% – What Buyers Do Now

Q2 US GDP grew 3.0%, but housing demand is restricted by 6.83% mortgage rates. Get actionable procurement advice for SPF and SYP buyers.

Pricing Trend
Market Analysis
Jan 30

SYP Export Drop Signals Domestic Supply Stability

Southern Pine (SYP) exports fell 15.3% Y-o-Y in November. Analyze the impact on domestic SYP supply and pricing outlook for Q1 2025 procurement.

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